Friday’s US employment report is the week’s main event. Payroll growth is expected to moderate after August’s stronger increase, while unemployment should remain steady. Wednesday’s core PCE release and Thursday’s ISM manufacturing survey will provide further evidence on whether resilient demand and persistent inflation justify additional Federal Reserve tightening.
The RBA is expected to raise rates on Tuesday, as above-target inflation, stronger growth, and a still-tight labour market outweigh recent softness in employment. China’s official PMIs, Japan’s Tankan and eurozone flash inflation complete a busy international calendar. The latter is likely to show a marked energy-driven acceleration, keeping another ECB increase in play.
Geopolitical developments remain central to the inflation outlook, with markets monitoring oil supplies and the conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine. France is due to present its draft 2027 budget to the Council of Ministers on Thursday, beginning what could be a difficult parliamentary process. Bond yields will remain sensitive to inflation data, central-bank guidance and fiscal developments.
All times are GMT
Monday 28 September
Speakers: ECB's President Lagarde | BoE's Ramsden
Tuesday 29 September
04:30 – Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision Consensus:25bps Hike (Prev: 4.35%)
The RBA is expected to raise the cash rate by 25bp. Commonwealth Bank of Australia recently brought forward its forecast from November, citing higher oil prices, increased market pricing for an immediate move and the Bank’s continued focus on inflation. It expects a “unanimous 25bp increase” accompanied by a hawkish statement and press conference. Although unemployment has risen to 4.6%, CBA believes this largely reflects stronger participation rather than a sharp deterioration in labour demand. Policymakers are unlikely to declare victory over inflation and should retain a tightening bias, although CBA does not currently expect another increase. Governor Michele Bullock’s media conference follows at 05:30 GMT.
Speakers: ECB's Lane
Wednesday 30 September
01:30 – Mainland China Official PMIs (Sep) Manufacturing Consensus: 50.1 (Prev: 49.8) Non-Manufacturing Consensus: 49.3 (Prev: 49.0)
China’s manufacturing PMI is expected to move narrowly into expansion, although Barclays forecasts a softer 49.8. Its economists point to weakness in coking, steel and PVC chemicals, with high-frequency activity indicators providing mixed signals. The non-manufacturing index is expected to recover modestly but remain below 50, suggesting that momentum in services and construction remains subdued. Markets will compare the official survey with the RatingDog manufacturing PMI, due fifteen minutes later. Continued weakness would reinforce the case for further policy support, while a stronger result could ease concern about the durability of China’s recovery.
01.30 – Australia CPI (Aug) Consensus: 4.0% y/y (Prev: 3.5%)
Australian inflation is expected to rise sharply in August, although much of the increase should reflect volatile components. CBA forecasts headline inflation of 4.0pct year-on-year, one percentage point above the top of the RBA’s target range, with higher fuel prices and electricity base effects accounting for most of the acceleration. Trimmed-mean inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6pct, leaving underlying price pressure “uncomfortably high”. The figures will also provide an early guide to third-quarter inflation, which CBA believes could reach 1.0pct on a trimmed-mean basis. Such an outcome would keep the possibility of further RBA tightening firmly in view.
12:30 – US Core PCE Price Index (Aug) Consensus: 0.3% m/m; 3.3% y/y (Prev: 0.2% m/m; 3.3% y/y)
Citi expects core PCE inflation of 0.29% m/m and 3.1% y/y, with education, wireless services, airfares and modestly firmer goods prices offsetting softer housing costs. However, it says there is “much more uncertainty” than usual because the release incorporates annual revisions and new methodologies for portfolio management services, legal services, and computer software. Citi estimates the revisions will lower annual core inflation by around 0.3 percentage points, leaving it below the Fed’s latest projection. Markets will look beyond the headline result to determine whether underlying services inflation remains firm enough to support another rate increase.
23:50 – Japan Tankan Survey (Q3) Consensus: Large Manufacturing 25 (Prev: 22) | Non-Manufacturing 36 (Prev: 37)
Japan’s Tankan is expected to show stronger manufacturing confidence alongside resilient service-sector conditions. HSBC forecasts the large-manufacturer index at 23, below consensus but above the previous quarter, while placing the non-manufacturing index at 39. Investment plans, labour shortages and firms’ inflation expectations will be closely watched. Stronger pricing expectations and robust capital expenditure would reinforce the case for further BoJ tightening, particularly if companies continue to report improving profitability despite higher energy and import costs. The survey will also indicate whether recent yen weakness is helping exporters sufficiently to offset pressure on domestically focused businesses.
Speakers: ECB's Schnabel | Fed's Williams
Thursday 1 October
14:00 – US ISM Manufacturing (Sep) Consensus: 55.0 (Prev: 54.6)
Manufacturing activity is expected to remain firmly in expansion. Barclays forecasts the index broadly unchanged at 54.5, despite the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI rising sharply to 57.0. The bank regards the ISM survey as the more reliable indicator and says respondent commentary may prove as important as the headline. Markets will examine new orders, employment and prices paid for evidence that demand remains strong while energy, transport and tariff costs feed through supply chains. Another elevated price reading would strengthen concerns that manufacturing inflation could slow progress towards the Fed’s target.
Speakers: BoE's Bailey, Mann | ECB's Schnabel | Fed's Kashkari
Eurozone inflation is expected to accelerate sharply as higher oil and fuel prices lift the energy component. BofA forecasts headline HICP at 3.9% y/y, above consensus, and core inflation at 2.4%, with a risk of 2.5%. That combination would suggest that the initial increase remains concentrated in energy rather than reflecting a broad resurgence in domestic price pressure. Nevertheless, policymakers will be alert to second-round effects through transport costs, wages and firms’ selling prices. BofA believes the result should remain broadly consistent with the ECB’s projections but expects another rate increase in December. A stronger core reading would bring the possibility of earlier tightening back into focus.
US employment growth is expected to moderate after August’s stronger increase. HSBC forecasts payrolls rising by 100k, supported by improving weekly ADP readings and firmer employment components in the preliminary PMIs. It expects unemployment to remain at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rise 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y. Markets will also examine participation, hours worked and revisions to previous months. A weak report would raise doubts about the durability of growth and temper expectations for additional Fed tightening. Conversely, resilient hiring and firmer wages would reinforce the view that policy may need to remain restrictive.
Speakers: Fed's Williams, Logan
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Friday’s US employment report is the week’s main event. Payroll growth is expected to moderate after August’s stronger increase, while unemployment should remain steady. Wednesday’s core PCE release and Thursday’s ISM manufacturing survey will provide further evidence on whether resilient demand and persistent inflation justify additional Federal Reserve tightening.
The RBA is expected to raise rates on Tuesday, as above-target inflation, stronger growth, and a still-tight labour market outweigh recent softness in employment. China’s official PMIs, Japan’s Tankan and eurozone flash inflation complete a busy international calendar. The latter is likely to show a marked energy-driven acceleration, keeping another ECB increase in play.
Geopolitical developments remain central to the inflation outlook, with markets monitoring oil supplies and the conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine. France is due to present its draft 2027 budget to the Council of Ministers on Thursday, beginning what could be a difficult parliamentary process. Bond yields will remain sensitive to inflation data, central-bank guidance and fiscal developments.
All times are GMT
Speakers: ECB's President Lagarde | BoE's Ramsden
04:30 – Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
Consensus:25bps Hike (Prev: 4.35%)
The RBA is expected to raise the cash rate by 25bp. Commonwealth Bank of Australia recently brought forward its forecast from November, citing higher oil prices, increased market pricing for an immediate move and the Bank’s continued focus on inflation. It expects a “unanimous 25bp increase” accompanied by a hawkish statement and press conference. Although unemployment has risen to 4.6%, CBA believes this largely reflects stronger participation rather than a sharp deterioration in labour demand. Policymakers are unlikely to declare victory over inflation and should retain a tightening bias, although CBA does not currently expect another increase. Governor Michele Bullock’s media conference follows at 05:30 GMT.
Speakers: ECB's Lane
01:30 – Mainland China Official PMIs (Sep)
Manufacturing Consensus: 50.1 (Prev: 49.8)
Non-Manufacturing Consensus: 49.3 (Prev: 49.0)
China’s manufacturing PMI is expected to move narrowly into expansion, although Barclays forecasts a softer 49.8. Its economists point to weakness in coking, steel and PVC chemicals, with high-frequency activity indicators providing mixed signals. The non-manufacturing index is expected to recover modestly but remain below 50, suggesting that momentum in services and construction remains subdued. Markets will compare the official survey with the RatingDog manufacturing PMI, due fifteen minutes later. Continued weakness would reinforce the case for further policy support, while a stronger result could ease concern about the durability of China’s recovery.
01.30 – Australia CPI (Aug)
Consensus: 4.0% y/y (Prev: 3.5%)
Australian inflation is expected to rise sharply in August, although much of the increase should reflect volatile components. CBA forecasts headline inflation of 4.0pct year-on-year, one percentage point above the top of the RBA’s target range, with higher fuel prices and electricity base effects accounting for most of the acceleration. Trimmed-mean inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6pct, leaving underlying price pressure “uncomfortably high”. The figures will also provide an early guide to third-quarter inflation, which CBA believes could reach 1.0pct on a trimmed-mean basis. Such an outcome would keep the possibility of further RBA tightening firmly in view.
12:30 – US Core PCE Price Index (Aug)
Consensus: 0.3% m/m; 3.3% y/y (Prev: 0.2% m/m; 3.3% y/y)
Citi expects core PCE inflation of 0.29% m/m and 3.1% y/y, with education, wireless services, airfares and modestly firmer goods prices offsetting softer housing costs. However, it says there is “much more uncertainty” than usual because the release incorporates annual revisions and new methodologies for portfolio management services, legal services, and computer software. Citi estimates the revisions will lower annual core inflation by around 0.3 percentage points, leaving it below the Fed’s latest projection. Markets will look beyond the headline result to determine whether underlying services inflation remains firm enough to support another rate increase.
23:50 – Japan Tankan Survey (Q3)
Consensus: Large Manufacturing 25 (Prev: 22) | Non-Manufacturing 36 (Prev: 37)
Japan’s Tankan is expected to show stronger manufacturing confidence alongside resilient service-sector conditions. HSBC forecasts the large-manufacturer index at 23, below consensus but above the previous quarter, while placing the non-manufacturing index at 39. Investment plans, labour shortages and firms’ inflation expectations will be closely watched. Stronger pricing expectations and robust capital expenditure would reinforce the case for further BoJ tightening, particularly if companies continue to report improving profitability despite higher energy and import costs. The survey will also indicate whether recent yen weakness is helping exporters sufficiently to offset pressure on domestically focused businesses.
Speakers: ECB's Schnabel | Fed's Williams
14:00 – US ISM Manufacturing (Sep)
Consensus: 55.0 (Prev: 54.6)
Manufacturing activity is expected to remain firmly in expansion. Barclays forecasts the index broadly unchanged at 54.5, despite the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI rising sharply to 57.0. The bank regards the ISM survey as the more reliable indicator and says respondent commentary may prove as important as the headline. Markets will examine new orders, employment and prices paid for evidence that demand remains strong while energy, transport and tariff costs feed through supply chains. Another elevated price reading would strengthen concerns that manufacturing inflation could slow progress towards the Fed’s target.
Speakers: BoE's Bailey, Mann | ECB's Schnabel | Fed's Kashkari
09:00 – Eurozone HICP (Sep, Flash)
Consensus: 3.6% y/y (Prev: 3.2%)
Eurozone inflation is expected to accelerate sharply as higher oil and fuel prices lift the energy component. BofA forecasts headline HICP at 3.9% y/y, above consensus, and core inflation at 2.4%, with a risk of 2.5%. That combination would suggest that the initial increase remains concentrated in energy rather than reflecting a broad resurgence in domestic price pressure. Nevertheless, policymakers will be alert to second-round effects through transport costs, wages and firms’ selling prices. BofA believes the result should remain broadly consistent with the ECB’s projections but expects another rate increase in December. A stronger core reading would bring the possibility of earlier tightening back into focus.
12:30 – US Employment Report (Sep)
Consensus: Nonfarm Payrolls 100k; (Prev: 162k); Unemployment 4.1% (Prev: 4.1%)
US employment growth is expected to moderate after August’s stronger increase. HSBC forecasts payrolls rising by 100k, supported by improving weekly ADP readings and firmer employment components in the preliminary PMIs. It expects unemployment to remain at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rise 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y. Markets will also examine participation, hours worked and revisions to previous months. A weak report would raise doubts about the durability of growth and temper expectations for additional Fed tightening. Conversely, resilient hiring and firmer wages would reinforce the view that policy may need to remain restrictive.
Speakers: Fed's Williams, Logan