The US government entered a partial shutdown on Friday, although the House is set to consider a funding package passed by the Senate later this week.
On Monday, the Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes should offer further insight into policymakers’ thinking on monetary policy following last month’s interest rate decision.
In France, a final no-confidence vote is likely to be held on Monday. Thereafter, the 2026 budget is expected to be approved.
Over the weekend, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that any attack on his country would spark a regional conflict. Yet, US President Donald Trump said he remained "hopeful" of a deal.
Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said attention will be firmly on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming policy decision, its first since December 9. They noted that last week’s CPI data reinforced expectations that the central bank will lift the cash rate by 25 basis points at its February meeting. “Underlying inflation remains too strong to be consistent with the RBA’s objectives, labour market conditions are still tight, and consumer spending is picking up,” CBA said. “These dynamics point to a demand-driven upswing in economic activity that, absent further policy tightening, is likely to continue to put upward pressure on inflation as we move further into 2026.”
15:00 US Dec JOLTS Job Openings (000s)
Consensus: 7250k (prev 7146k)
SocGen said that, while somewhat backwards-looking, the release nonetheless offered useful insight into underlying labour-market trends. “We look at the JOLTS data on hiring, layoffs, quits and retirements and note that net hiring has bounced back from a disastrous summer and has since stabilised at a relatively modest pace, broadly in line with developments over the past couple of years,” the bank said. “We expect the December JOLTS report to continue to paint a similar picture of private-sector excess labour demand and net hiring.”
Nomura estimated that euro area HICP inflation in January 2026 likely dipped further below the ECB’s 2.0% target, to 1.7% y/y from 1.9% in December 2025. “However, we think momentum in core HICP inflation, and in particular services HICP inflation, likely remained sticky,” the bank said. “Indeed, we see upside risks owing to services prices and changes to the basket weights. We believe French HICP inflation was likely unchanged at 0.7% y/y, while Italian HICP inflation likely fell by 0.4pp to 0.8% y/y, owing to energy base effects.”
Citi forecasts factory orders to fall from last month's level, which was inflated by bulk orders, but will monitor broader momentum for potential new orders related to the German fiscal stimulus package.
12:00 – BoE Feb Interest Rate Decision Consensus: On Hold (prev 3.75%)
BofA Global Research said it expected the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%. “The BoE’s gradual guidance, a pickup in inflation, improved sentiment data and elevated price and wage expectations rule out a back-to-back cut,” the bank said. “And while the labour market continues to soften, in our view it is not deteriorating rapidly enough to justify another cut.” Analysts recalled that in December the BoE emphasised greater caution as policy approaches neutral, with decisions on future cuts becoming a closer call. “We expect a 7–2 vote in favour of a hold, with Taylor and Dhingra voting for a 25bp cut. There are risks of a 6–3 outcome, with Ramsden also voting for a 25bp cut.”
13:15 - ECB Feb Interest Rate Decision Consensus: On Hold (prev 2.00%)
Deutsche Bank said that while no immediate policy change is anticipated, the meeting will be important for understanding how the Governing Council is assessing an environment marked by high uncertainty and two-sided risks. It posited that the key tension for policymakers is the battle between domestic and external conditions. “Our baseline remains that the ECB will hold rates at 2% through 2026, with the next move being a hike in mid-2027 driven by fiscal easing, a tight labour market and future inflation risks moving above target,” wrote bank analysts.
07:00 - Sweden Jan CPI/CPIF (Flash) Consensus: Y/Y 0.5% (prev 0.3%)/1.9% (prev 2.1%)
Danske said its forecasts showed CPIF excluding energy at 1.91%, CPIF at 2.36%, and CPI at 0.9% y/y. “While core inflation is expected to decline, cold weather is contributing to higher electricity prices and, in turn, higher headline inflation,” the bank said. “In recent months, core inflation has surprised to the downside, likely reflecting the stronger Swedish currency. Import prices have fallen, and we expect this to continue weighing on goods inflation during the first half of the year.” The bank added that it had developed a simple model of exchange-rate pass-through, detailed in its Sweden Inflation Forecast dated 29 January, and noted that full details of the January print will be released on 20 February.
13:30 US Jan Nonfarm Payrolls Consensus: 68.0k (prev 50.0k)
“January’s nonfarm payrolls are likely to rise by 45,000 (40,000 in the private sector),” BofA forecast. “The reasons for our below-consensus view are potential revisions to the birth–death model and some residual seasonality. Setting the model changes aside, we think January job growth was relatively stable, likely in the 70,000–80,000 range. Initial and continuing claims remained low during the survey week, and Winter Storm Fern occurred after the survey week for the January report. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 4.4%.”
The US bank noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to publish annual benchmark revisions to the establishment survey and incorporate new population estimates into the household survey.
13:30 Canada Jan Labour Market Report Consensus: 5.0k (prev 10.1k)
TD Securities said job gains are expected to have remained subdued in Jan, increasing by 45k. “We look for private to add 40k and government to add 5k. We expect private sector strength to be concentrated in healthcare and construction. TD also expected the unemployment rate to continue to stabilise, remaining at 4.4%. “The low-fire, low-hire labour market remains,” analysts said. Average hourly earnings were seen rising 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y.
Speakers: ECB’s Cipollone, Kocher | BoE’s Pill
All Times GMT
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The US government entered a partial shutdown on Friday, although the House is set to consider a funding package passed by the Senate later this week.
On Monday, the Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes should offer further insight into policymakers’ thinking on monetary policy following last month’s interest rate decision.
In France, a final no-confidence vote is likely to be held on Monday. Thereafter, the 2026 budget is expected to be approved.
Over the weekend, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that any attack on his country would spark a regional conflict. Yet, US President Donald Trump said he remained "hopeful" of a deal.
All Times Are GMT
Speakers: Fed's Bostic
03:30 - RBA Feb Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: 25bps Hike (prev 3.60%)
Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said attention will be firmly on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming policy decision, its first since December 9. They noted that last week’s CPI data reinforced expectations that the central bank will lift the cash rate by 25 basis points at its February meeting. “Underlying inflation remains too strong to be consistent with the RBA’s objectives, labour market conditions are still tight, and consumer spending is picking up,” CBA said. “These dynamics point to a demand-driven upswing in economic activity that, absent further policy tightening, is likely to continue to put upward pressure on inflation as we move further into 2026.”
15:00 US Dec JOLTS Job Openings (000s)
Consensus: 7250k (prev 7146k)
SocGen said that, while somewhat backwards-looking, the release nonetheless offered useful insight into underlying labour-market trends. “We look at the JOLTS data on hiring, layoffs, quits and retirements and note that net hiring has bounced back from a disastrous summer and has since stabilised at a relatively modest pace, broadly in line with developments over the past couple of years,” the bank said. “We expect the December JOLTS report to continue to paint a similar picture of private-sector excess labour demand and net hiring.”
Speakers: BoE’s Breeden | Fed’s Barkin, Bowman
10:00 Eurozone Jan HICP/Core (Flash)
Consensus: Y/Y 1.0% (prev 1.2%)/2.2% (prev 2.3%)
Nomura estimated that euro area HICP inflation in January 2026 likely dipped further below the ECB’s 2.0% target, to 1.7% y/y from 1.9% in December 2025. “However, we think momentum in core HICP inflation, and in particular services HICP inflation, likely remained sticky,” the bank said. “Indeed, we see upside risks owing to services prices and changes to the basket weights. We believe French HICP inflation was likely unchanged at 0.7% y/y, while Italian HICP inflation likely fell by 0.4pp to 0.8% y/y, owing to energy base effects.”
Speakers: RBA’s Jones
07:00 - Germany Dec Industrial Orders
Consensus: M/M -2.4% (prev 5.6%)
Citi forecasts factory orders to fall from last month's level, which was inflated by bulk orders, but will monitor broader momentum for potential new orders related to the German fiscal stimulus package.
12:00 – BoE Feb Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: On Hold (prev 3.75%)
BofA Global Research said it expected the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%. “The BoE’s gradual guidance, a pickup in inflation, improved sentiment data and elevated price and wage expectations rule out a back-to-back cut,” the bank said. “And while the labour market continues to soften, in our view it is not deteriorating rapidly enough to justify another cut.” Analysts recalled that in December the BoE emphasised greater caution as policy approaches neutral, with decisions on future cuts becoming a closer call. “We expect a 7–2 vote in favour of a hold, with Taylor and Dhingra voting for a 25bp cut. There are risks of a 6–3 outcome, with Ramsden also voting for a 25bp cut.”
13:15 - ECB Feb Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: On Hold (prev 2.00%)
Deutsche Bank said that while no immediate policy change is anticipated, the meeting will be important for understanding how the Governing Council is assessing an environment marked by high uncertainty and two-sided risks. It posited that the key tension for policymakers is the battle between domestic and external conditions. “Our baseline remains that the ECB will hold rates at 2% through 2026, with the next move being a hike in mid-2027 driven by fiscal easing, a tight labour market and future inflation risks moving above target,” wrote bank analysts.
Speakers: ECB’s Lagarde | Fed’s Bostic| BoC’s Macklem | RBA’s Bullock
07:00 - Sweden Jan CPI/CPIF (Flash)
Consensus: Y/Y 0.5% (prev 0.3%)/1.9% (prev 2.1%)
Danske said its forecasts showed CPIF excluding energy at 1.91%, CPIF at 2.36%, and CPI at 0.9% y/y.
“While core inflation is expected to decline, cold weather is contributing to higher electricity prices and, in turn, higher headline inflation,” the bank said. “In recent months, core inflation has surprised to the downside, likely reflecting the stronger Swedish currency. Import prices have fallen, and we expect this to continue weighing on goods inflation during the first half of the year.” The bank added that it had developed a simple model of exchange-rate pass-through, detailed in its Sweden Inflation Forecast dated 29 January, and noted that full details of the January print will be released on 20 February.
13:30 US Jan Nonfarm Payrolls
Consensus: 68.0k (prev 50.0k)
“January’s nonfarm payrolls are likely to rise by 45,000 (40,000 in the private sector),” BofA forecast. “The reasons for our below-consensus view are potential revisions to the birth–death model and some residual seasonality. Setting the model changes aside, we think January job growth was relatively stable, likely in the 70,000–80,000 range. Initial and continuing claims remained low during the survey week, and Winter Storm Fern occurred after the survey week for the January report. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 4.4%.”
The US bank noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to publish annual benchmark revisions to the establishment survey and incorporate new population estimates into the household survey.
13:30 Canada Jan Labour Market Report
Consensus: 5.0k (prev 10.1k)
TD Securities said job gains are expected to have remained subdued in Jan, increasing by 45k. “We look for private to add 40k and government to add 5k. We expect private sector strength to be concentrated in healthcare and construction. TD also expected the unemployment rate to continue to stabilise, remaining at 4.4%. “The low-fire, low-hire labour market remains,” analysts said. Average hourly earnings were seen rising 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y.
Speakers: ECB’s Cipollone, Kocher | BoE’s Pill