The US jobs report has come in notably stronger than expected for a second consecutive month. Payrolls rose 115k in April versus the 65k expectation, while last month's initial print of 178k is now 185k. This is the first back-to-back monthly jobs increase since May of last year. Other key metrics are that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% with the details contradicting the payrolls' data, in that the household survey suggests employment fell 226k while the number of people declaring themselves unemployed rose 134k. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.2%MoM/3.6%YoY, which was below the 0.3%/3.8% consensus prediction.

The details show private education and healthcare services added 46k jobs, while transportation and warehousing added 30k and retail contributed 22k, with leisure and hospitality employment increasing 14k. Manufacturing lost 2k though, with information dropping 13k and financial activities losing 11k. Over the past twelve months, the US has added 238k jobs, or just under 20k per month on average, most of which have come in the past two months. (ING – Continue Reading)

The United Kingdom's governing Labour Party and the opposition Conservative Party, which together have dominated British politics and seated every prime minister for more than 100 years, both took a gut punch in a major round of local elections on Thursday.

For Labour leader and current Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the heavy losses on city councils across England, even with votes still being counted in Scotland and Wales, paint a bruising picture.

Starmer took office less than two years ago, after Labour won a landslide in the last national parliamentary elections. In Thursday's voting, the party lost more than half of its seats on local councils, fuelling renewed calls for Starmer to resign as leader of both his party and the country. (CBS – Continue Reading)

President Trump really, really wants the war with Iran to end. He has declared victory many times, including about three weeks ago, when Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz. He has repeatedly extended his cease-fire deadlines instead of following through on his (sometimes-apocalyptic) threats to resume hostilities. This week, his administration abruptly abandoned an effort to escort ships through the strait in part because of a fear that it could provoke violent, escalating confrontations.

Trump is tired of the war, which has proved far more difficult and lasted far longer than he had expected. His party is warily watching rising gas prices and falling poll numbers. He doesn’t want to be bogged down in a Middle East conflict like some of his predecessors were. He doesn’t want it to upend his high-stakes summit next week in China. He is ready to move on. (The Atlantic – Continue Reading)

People in developed economies are cutting savings to maintain living standards, as higher costs linked to the Iran war are pushed directly onto households, an economist told CNN.

“Companies are effectively passing costs on to the end consumer,” said Paul Donovan, global chief economist for UBS Wealth Management.

His comments come as consumer sentiment in the US continued to decline this month, hitting a record low as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz rattles global energy markets. (CNN – Continue Reading)

Fitch Ratings has raised its 2026-2027 oil price assumptions due to the longer-than-expected effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict. They are now based on an assumption the strait will begin reopening around July. The higher 2026-2027 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) assumptions reflect disrupted liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows from Qatar through the strait and damage to the country’s LNG infrastructure.

The key driver of the oil price change is our revised assumption on the duration of the effective closure of Hormuz. Before the war, 15 million barrels a day (mmbpd) of crude oil and 5 mmboepd of oil products transited through Hormuz, accounting for about 20% of global oil consumption. Reopening could happen relatively quickly, but the process could also be fractious and uncertain. We have assumed the strait closure will last for about five months for our revised oil price assumptions, compared with one-to-two months previously. Average annual oil prices are likely to be lower if the closure lasts for less than five months. (Fitch – Continue Reading)